INTELLECTUAL TRADING

Nifty weekly performance (25th Jan - 29 Jan): Nifty ended the week on positive note gaining around 1.80%. Indian equity markets hit their highest level in three weeks on Friday led by strong Asian cues and the firming of crude oil prices. On Friday, the BSE Sensex closed higher by 401 points, and the NSE Nifty closed higher by 139 points. Gains were largely seen in healthcare and consumer durable stocks.  Nifty Prediction for Week (February 01, 2016 – February 05, 2016) : The index has closed around the strong resistance zone of 7550 to 7600 where the index has broken down from the double bottom pattern.If the index manages to close above this levels then the index can move to the levels of 7650 to 7700.Broad range for the week is seen from 7350 on downside to 7750 on upside. Weekly News and Highlights:    1) As expected, the US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged, though it signaled it might consider slowing future rate hikes if market losses and global

Nifty weekly performance (18th Jan - 22 Jan): On Friday, Indian equity markets started the day on a positive note and continued this trend throughout the day on the back of persistent buying activity. While the BSE Sensex closed higher by 473 points, the NSE Nifty closed higher by 146 points. S&P BSE Midcap and S&P BSE Smallcap also closed on a strong  note with the indices up by 1.9% and 2.3% respectively.  Nifty staged a stellar comeback on the last day of the week. It has closed up by 145 points .  Nifty Prediction :  => Tuesday 26th Jan is Holiday for Indian markets and 28th Jan Thursday is closing of Jan futures . => By looking at weekly technical charts of Nifty: It has formed dogi candlestick need to wait for one more week to decide  the short term nifty trend. => We conveyed in previous article that  Liquidity  is current major reason for Indian markets down fall,  FIIs continued to be net sellers and till this trend continues, there cannot be a big

Why Indian Stock Market is falling sharply? Nifty has seen 7% correction in January 2016 till date. There are so many factors for this downfall, but the main reason is Liquidity.       In Jan 2016 ,FIIs were net seller of Rs.12737 crores .  China problem was very well known from Year 2014 to mid of Year 2015,So China crissis is not main cause for India Down Fall. Actual Reasons behind this downfall First of all, when US FED hinted that they are going to raise interest rate in December 2015. If you look at FII data in Indian as well in emerging markets from May-2015, they started pulling money from all markets. Because of this, money that came from US has to go back, due to rise in interest rates in US. So, without FIIs money support, market was not able to move further positive and had seen selling pressure on every positive movement. Second reason is Crude. As crude price fell to 12 years low, many crude producing countries felt heat in their budget. Saudi reported highest

      The central bureau of excise and customs, which comes under the ministry of finance led by Arun Jaitley, increased the excise duty on both petrol as well as diesel. This after the price of the Indian basket of crude oil had fallen to $26.43 per barrel on January 14, 2016.    This is the eight increase in excise duty on customs and excise since November 2014. The first increase had happened on November 12, 2014. With the latest increase the excise duty on petrol stands at Rs 8.48 per litre. Between November 2014 and now, the excise duty on unbranded petrol has gone up by Rs 7.28 per litre or a whopping 607%.    With the latest increase the excise duty on unbranded diesel stands at Rs 9.83 per litre. Between November 2014 and now, the excise duty on unbranded diesel has gone up by Rs 8.37 per litre or a whopping 573%.   The government has clearly captured in a large chunk of the gain because of lower oil prices. As on January 16, 2016, the price of petrol in Mumbai stood at

Nifty weekly performance: On Friday, the BSE Sensex closed lower by 318 points, and the NSE Nifty closed lower by 99 points. Midcaps and smallcaps fared the worst. While the S&P BSE Mid Cap index closed lower by 2.7%, the S&P BSE Small Cap index closed with losses of 3.1%. Losses were largely seen in power and realty stocks.    Nifty slided below the psychological mark of 7,500 and closed at an 18-month low of 7,437. The intraday oscillators are moving back in the bearish territory after a minor pullback suggesting bears are likely to keep prices under check on an immediate basis. All the bullish advances met selling pressure around 7,600 during the week. This level will act as a strong resistance going forward. Technically there is a big support at 7150-7200 which is 61.8% retracement of previous rally from 5933 to 9116.  Weekly News and Highlights: 1) During the week, in India it was reported that India's demand for fuel rose 8.3% during the month of December o

Recently, crude oil prices in the US tanked to seven year lows of US$ 31 per barrel. Despite this, 'Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) remains adamant on not cutting back its oil production. Currently, OPEC is pumping close to 31.77 million barrels per day (bpd) which is more than its target of 30 million bpd. The OPEC is doing this to retain its market share. OPEC members had lost some portion of its market share to US shale producers, owing to robust production by the latter over the preceding two years. In order to regain market share, OPEC members started drilling oil at record high levels. The excess supply situation resulted in oil prices heading downwards. The low prices of crude oil made it unfeasible for US shale producers to drill oil as their cost of production was higher as compared to the prices of crude oil. This is evident in the latest figures wherein there is a 65% decline in the oil rig count in the US. Now that US shale production

Over the last few months, the value of the Chinese yuan against the dollar has gradually been allowed to fall. In August 2015, the People's Bank of China pushed the value of the dollar against the yuan, from 6.2 to around 6.37. In November 2015, one dollar was worth around 6.31 yuan. By the end of the year, one dollar was worth 6.48 yuan, with the yuan gradually depreciating against the dollar. In the new year, the yuan has depreciated further against the dollar and one dollar is now worth around 6.58 yuan. So what is happening here? It is first important to understand how the People's Bank of China has over the years maintained the value of the yuan against the dollar. When Chinese exporters bring back dollars to China or when investors want to bring dollars into China, the Chinese central bank buys these dollars. They buy these dollars by selling yuan. This ensures that at any given point of time there is no scarcity of yuan and there are enough yuan in the market, in or

Psychological Management Rule 1. When in Doubt, Stay Out Rule 2. Never Trade or Invest Based on Hope Rule 3. Act on Your Own Judgment or Eise Absolutely and Entirely on the Judgment of Another Rule 4. Buy Low (into Weakness), Seil High (into Strength) Rule 5. Don't Overtrade Rule 6. After a Successful and Profitable Campaign,Take a Trading Vacation Rule 7. Take a Periodic Mental Inventory to See How You Are Doing Rule 8. Constantly Analyze Your Mistakes Rule 9. Don't Jump the Gun Rule 10. Don't Try to Call Every Market Turn Money Management Rule 11. Never Enter into a Position without First Establishing a Risk Reward Rule 12. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run Rule 13. Place Numerous Small Bets on Low-Risk Ideas Rule 14. Look Down, Not Up  [ Always first check probable down side not only up] Rule 15. Never Trade or Invest More Than VOM  Rule 16. Don't Fight the Trend Rule 17. Wherever Possible, Trade Liquid Markets Rule 18. Never Meet a Margin Call Rule 19

Nifty Last week performance: Nifty started the first week of 2016 on a terrible note. It is down with a loss of 4.5% for the week. The index is back to where it began the upswing three weeks back. It is currently placed above an important support level of 7500. Market participants will be watchful of this level as a breach below this could attract further selling.  Last Week News and Highlights: The meltdown seen in Chinese stock markets took most of the headlines this week. Trading was halted twice this week after the Shanghai Composite Index hit the circuit breaker limit of -7%. The first crash was witnessed on Monday. The other came on Wednesday where Chinese markets were open for all of 29 minutes before the blue-chip CSI 300 index fell by 7%.          China using a weaker currency to spark growth for the struggling economy. The above woes were spilled over to global markets too.On Thursday, China cleared that it would suspend its new circuit breaker mechanism that has be

Jan 2016 FIIS and DIIS activity Date FIIS DIIS 07-Jan-16 -1,051.74 190.86 06-Jan-16 -242.48 576.57 05-Jan-16 -352.42 13.19 04-Jan-16 -667.15 -222.79 01-Jan-16 228.11 -81.24 TOTAL -2,085.68 476.59 This month FII data is very negative, Specially t oday . 7-Jan -  FIIs: - 1051.74 ( 3610.14 - 4661.88 ) - Sold 19 lakh nifty future worth 1566 cr - Bought 40 lakh put option worth 3844 cr - Sold in cash segment worth 1052 cr 7th Jan FIIs F&O - in  Rs crs: Index futures   -1565.63 Index options   +3843.76 Stock futures   -82.34 Stock options   -86.32 Data indicates further downside, stay cautious. Today Nifty closed at 7568 ,  On downside next immediate support is at 7517 then 7467,7438,7383,7337,7291.

Dec 28th Week Nifty Performance The Nifty continued its advance and ended last week of 2015 with gains of 1.25%. As of now, the Nifty is just short of the psychological mark of 8,000. It may face some resistance here on an immediate basis. But if bulls are able to weather the selling pressure here, then upside till 8,200 could be a possible. Last Week News and Highlights: 1) Japan's industrial output fell for the first time in three months during the month of November. This was seen as exports fell more than expected and households spent less. Data pointed out that industrial output fell 1% in November from the previous month. This was as against the forecast of a 0.5% drop. 2)Jobless claims in the US increased to their highest levels since July. Jobless claims jumped by 20,000 to 287,000 in the week ended December 26, a report from the Labor Department showed. Recommendations Techno Funda Picks for week Jan 3rd Week: Stock Rec Date Rec Price