INTELLECTUAL TRADING

1)  Union Budget FY2016 By Emkay Global - View Report 2)  Union Budget FY2016 By ICICI Securities -  View Report 3)  Union Budget FY2016 By Religare -  View Report 4)  Union Budget FY2016 By Prabhudas     Lilladher  -  View Report 5)  Union Budget FY2016 By ShareKhan     - View Report 6)  Union Budget FY2016 By Reliance     -View Report

Nifty weekly performance (February 22, 2016 – February 26, 2016): During the week, the Sensex plunged 2.3% and Nifty lost 2.5%. However, the markets closed their session on a positive note on Friday. There were several triggers that supported this rally.Some to be named are the rise in crude prices, the rebound in Chinese markets and a strong opening for European markets. Further, the Economic Survey which unveiled a path towards fiscal consolidation lifted market sentiments. The index managed to break out above the resistance level of 7,200 but couldn't sustain above those levels for long. It dropped by 125 points on Tuesday and has entered back in to the trading range of 6,900 to 7,200. The Nifty could trade choppily until it decisively breaks out on either side of this trading range. Traders would probably wait and take cues from the Union Budget before taking any positions. Nifty Prediction for Week  (February 29, 2016 – March 04, 2016): Support for the index

One key element of the Budget will be the management of the fiscal deficit. Reining in the Fisc has been much easier since crude oil prices have plunged. In August 2014, the benchmark Brent contract traded at around $105 a barrel. By January 2015, it was down to $45 a barrel. It dropped below $30 in late January this year. It has subsequently recovered a little to $35 a barrel. Natural gas has seen a similar trajectory of steeply declining prices. So has coal. India imports roughly 80 per cent of its crude oil consumption (including a fair amount for export of refined products), about 30 per cent of its natural gas and 10-12 per cent of its coal. So, it has been a massive beneficiary of lower energy prices. Long-term gas contracts have been renegotiated on better terms. The import bill for crude oil in 2015-16 is roughly 40 per cent less than estimated in the 2015 Budget, which assumed an average price of $70 a barrel. The import bill for 2014-15 was also much lower. Subsidies h

Rec Price = Re-commanded Price , Rec Date - Re-commanded Date, CMP = Current Market Price , SL = Stop Los Disclaimer -PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE VIEWS AND CALLS ARE AS PER THE ANALYSIS OF CHARTS AND MAY REVERSE ANYTIME. THIS POST IS PURELY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS A BUYING OR SELLING RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND I REQUEST ALL STUDENTS AND READERS OF THIS POST THAT NOT TO TRADE THIS STRATEGY. THIS POST I HAVE POSTED ON THIS PAGE IS FOR MY FUTURE REFERENCE.

Nifty PE ratio measures the average PE ratio of the Nifty 50 companies covered by the Nifty Index. PE ratio is also known as "price multiple" or "earnings multiple". If P/E is 15, it means Nifty is 15 times its earnings. Nifty is considered to be in oversold range when Nifty PE value is below 14 and it's considered to be in overvalued range when Nifty PE is near or above 22. The market quickly bounces back from the oversold region because intelligent investors start buying stocks looking to snatch up bargains and they do the exact opposite when Nifty P/E is in the overbought region. Based on historical data and pure common sense, investors can safeguard their investment portfolio and earn handsome profit by following the investment rationale suggested in following table. Check out what Professor Bakshi (a famous Indian value investor ) has to say about Nifty P/E. Recent research done by my firm shows just how dangerous it is to remain invested

Nifty weekly performance (February 15, 2016 – February 19, 2016): During the week, the Sensex and Nifty rallied 3% each. This was also recorded as the biggest weekly upside since October 2015. However, the week was strong as equity benchmarks saw the biggest weekly gains in 2016 on short covering and oil recovery.  The hammer candle did have the expected impact as markets bounced back sharply during this week. However, this wasn't a one way bounce. Markets traded on an extremely choppy note throughout the week. Currently, the index is placed just above the resistance zone of 7,200.  Nifty Prediction for Week  (February 22, 2016 – February 26, 2016): Support for the index lies in the zone of 7000 where the index has formed a short term bottom. If the index manages to close below this levels then the index can drift to the levels of 6700 where 1000 Daily SMA and 200 Weekly SMA are positioned. Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 7240 where the index has for

♥ At a time when foreigners were investing in Indian equities, Indians were boosting their Gold purchases. The gold greedy Indians bought yellow metal worth $267 billion (Rs. 18 lakh crore at 68 rupees per US dollar) over the last 10 years.  ♥ Kotak excluded the gold which is imported for re~export. “Over the last decade, India received net equity foreign institutional investors’ flows of $119 billion, while net foreign direct investment inflow totaled $185 billion. It is this money that has financed the purchase of gold in the country.” ♥ According to World Gold Council (WGC), China and India accounted for close to 45% of total global gold demand during 2015. Full year 2015 saw China (985t) and India (849t) continue their dominance in the global gold market. In India both the investment (60t) and jewellery (173t) sectors were up 6%, boosted by the festival season.

Nifty is near 7200 , What should we do now  Basics of Investor to be followed in bear trend From above table we can see after every bear trend there is bull trend also which will give better returns. How often do corrections and bear markets happen? From 1990 through 2013, there were 123 corrections (about one per year) and 32 bear markets (one every 3.5 years), according to Ned Davis Research. How long do they last? In the average correction, the market fully recovered its value within an average of 10 months, according to Azzad Asset Management. The average bear market lasts for 15 months, with stocks declining 32 percent. The most recent bear market lasted 17 months, from October 2007 to March 2009   and shaved 54 percent off of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.   So bulls and bears were part of market game... Warren Buffet Quote : “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” We believe  It is right time to start

There are 60 major stock exchanges throughout the world, and their range of sizes is quite surprising. As Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardin notes,  at the high end of the spectrum is the mighty NYSE,  representing $18.5 trillion in market capitalization, or about 27% of the total market for global equities. At the lower end?  Stock exchanges on the tiny islands of Malta, Cyprus, and Bermuda all range from just $1 billion to $4 billion in value.  Even added together, these three exchanges make up just 0.01% of total market capitalization.

Modi looking to continually narrow the budget deficit, another way to identify priority areas would be to analyze which ministries have been able to implement existing allocations. Urban poverty and skill development could see budgets cut for the year through March 2017 as they barely spent a third of allotted funds in April-December. Drinking water and sanitation and women and child development have exceeded Modi’s estimates, indicating where resources may be diverted

With most public sector banks (PSBs) reporting a sharp increase in net non-performing assets (NPAs), the solvency position of these lenders has deteriorated rapidly over the past three quarters. A  Business Standard  analysis of 19 state-owned banks shows that at the aggregate level, the solvency ratio (ratio of a bank’s net NPA to its net worth) has edged up to 45.3 per cent at the end of the third quarter, from 35.8 per cent at the end of the first quarter in the current financial year. This means that 45.3 per cent of the net worth of these 19 banks would be wiped off if they had to provide for these bad loans. “In good times, the solvency ratio was 15-20 per cent. But now, for most PSBs, it is of a much higher magnitude,” says Vibha Batra, group head of financial sector ratings at Icra. Among the larger banks, Punjab National Bank appears to be in an extremely precarious financial position. Its solvency ratio worsened from 38.7 per cent in the first quarter to a staggerin

Nifty weekly performance (February 08, 2016 – February 12, 2016): Indian Indices recorded their biggest weekly decline since July 2009. The BSE Sensex lost around 6.6% during the week. NSE Nifty tanked around 6.8% during the entire week. The selloff was on the back of global concerns, the banking sector-led global  equity selloff, and disappointing quarterly corporate earnings. Horrible... One word is enough to describe last week's market action. The index witnessed largest ever drop of 7% in a week since 2009. Bulls saw the index with dropped jaws as one support level after the other was breached. The appearance of hammer candle on daily charts with heavy volumes indicates that a panic bottom could be in place or at least developing around these levels. Early action in the next week will help us confirm this view.  Nifty Prediction for Week (February 15, 2016 – February 19, 2016) : Support for the index lies in the zone of 6700 where 1000 Daily SMA and 200 Week

Exit from YES BANK (CMP 749) and Mindtree (CMP 1480.8)  - stop loss hit 

Nifty weekly performance (February 01, 2016 – February 05, 2016): Indian equity market at the initial start of the week witnessed weakness, sharp decline was noticed after RBI decided to keep key repo rate unchanged at 6.75%, saying it would want to wait for more inflation data and the Union Budget before taking action.  On the technical front Nifty witnessed a volatile trading week while there was some amount of short covering at the end of the  week but though closed in red with a decline of 0.98%. Nifty Prediction for Week (February 01, 2016 – February 05, 2016) : Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 7550 to 7600 where the index has broken down from the double bottom pattern.  If the index manages to close above this levels then the index can move to the levels of 7650 to 7700. Broad range for the week is seen from 7350 on downside to 7750 on upside. Weekly News and Highlights:   1) China's factory activity skidded to a three-year low point during the month