INTELLECTUAL TRADING

Nifty weekly performance  (March 21, 2016 – March 23, 2016): Indian indices registered gains during the three-day trading week as against previous week's closing. From its last week's closing till Wednesday, the BSE Sensex rose 1.5% and the NSE Nifty climbed 1.4%.  On Wednesday, Indian equity markets finished on a flat note amid strong European markets. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex closed higher by 7 points, the NSE Nifty finished higher by 2 points. Sectoral indices finished mixed with metal and IT stocks leading the gains. Selling activity was seen in oil & gas and consumer durable stocks.  Nifty Prediction for Week  (March 28, 2016 – April 1, 2016): The index finally broke out above 7,600 levels on Monday after two-week long consolidation. This breakout has given bulls an advantage over the bears as 7,600 will now act as a cushion for them in the next few days. Support for the index lies in the zone of 7600 from where the index has broken down after

Nifty weekly performance  (March 14, 2016 – March 18, 2016): Indian markets ended the week on a positive note. For the week, the BSE Sensex rose 0.9% and the NSE Nifty climbed 1.2%.  The most buying interest was seen in the banking and IT sectors.  Pharma, on the other hand, tanked 5% on downgrades and USFDA concerns. Nifty Prediction for Week  (March 21, 2016 – March 23, 2016): Support for the index lies in the zone of 7500 from where the index has broken down after making the double bottom pattern. If the index manages to close below this levels then the index can drift to the levels of 7400 where the index has opened with the gap up on 03/03/2016 and short term moving averages are lying. Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 7900 where 200 & 500 Daily SMA is lying. If the index manages to close above this levels then the index can move to the levels of 8100 where trend-line joining earlier highs is lying. Broad range for the week is seen from 7400 on do

Disclaimer -PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE VIEWS AND CALLS ARE AS PER THE ANALYSIS OF CHARTS AND MAY REVERSE ANYTIME. THIS POST IS PURELY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS A BUYING OR SELLING RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND I REQUEST ALL STUDENTS AND READERS OF THIS POST THAT NOT TO TRADE THIS STRATEGY. THIS POST I HAVE POSTED ON THIS PAGE IS FOR MY FUTURE REFERENCE.

No Open Trades: Rec Price  = Re-commanded Price , Rec Date - Re-commanded Date, CMP = Current Market Price , SL = Stop Los Disclaimer -PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE VIEWS AND CALLS ARE AS PER THE ANALYSIS OF CHARTS AND MAY REVERSE ANYTIME. THIS POST IS PURELY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS A BUYING OR SELLING RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND I REQUEST ALL STUDENTS AND READERS OF THIS POST THAT NOT TO TRADE THIS STRATEGY. THIS POST I HAVE POSTED ON THIS PAGE IS FOR MY FUTURE REFERENCE.

Nifty weekly performance (March 08, 2016 – March 11, 2016): Indian Indices witnessed marginal gains due to lack of major domestic and global cues. The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty both gained 0.3% for the week.The index consolidated in a tight range for all four trading session of the week. The Nifty was range bound between 7550 and 7440 most of the week.This range will restrict Nifty's moves on an immediate basis. Nifty Prediction for Week  (March 14, 2016 – March 18, 2016): Support for the index lies in the zone of 7230 to 7280 from where the index has broken out of the short term top. If the index manages to close below this levels then the index can drift to the levels of 6900 where channel support for the index is lying. Index has closed around the resistance zone of 7500 to 7550 from where the index has broken down after making the double bottom pattern. If the index manages to close above this levels then the index can move to the levels of 7700 where 100 Daily SMA

Rec Price  = Re-commanded Price , Rec Date - Re-commanded Date, CMP = Current Market Price , SL = Stop Los Disclaimer -PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE VIEWS AND CALLS ARE AS PER THE ANALYSIS OF CHARTS AND MAY REVERSE ANYTIME. THIS POST IS PURELY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS A BUYING OR SELLING RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND I REQUEST ALL STUDENTS AND READERS OF THIS POST THAT NOT TO TRADE THIS STRATEGY. THIS POST I HAVE POSTED ON THIS PAGE IS FOR MY FUTURE REFERENCE.

Rec Price  = Re-commanded Price , Rec Date - Re-commanded Date, CMP = Current Market Price , SL = Stop Los Disclaimer -PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE VIEWS AND CALLS ARE AS PER THE ANALYSIS OF CHARTS AND MAY REVERSE ANYTIME. THIS POST IS PURELY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS A BUYING OR SELLING RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND I REQUEST ALL STUDENTS AND READERS OF THIS POST THAT NOT TO TRADE THIS STRATEGY. THIS POST I HAVE POSTED ON THIS PAGE IS FOR MY FUTURE REFERENCE.

Rec Price  = Re-commanded Price , Rec Date - Re-commanded Date, CMP = Current Market Price , SL = Stop Los Disclaimer -PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE VIEWS AND CALLS ARE AS PER THE ANALYSIS OF CHARTS AND MAY REVERSE ANYTIME. THIS POST IS PURELY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS A BUYING OR SELLING RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND I REQUEST ALL STUDENTS AND READERS OF THIS POST THAT NOT TO TRADE THIS STRATEGY. THIS POST I HAVE POSTED ON THIS PAGE IS FOR MY FUTURE REFERENCE.

Crude (09.03.2016)  traded higher in last few weeks & looking unstoppable cash register next level. Crude is trading around $39 mark & as we can see on charts, crude still moving in a minor upside channel where it may face another resistance at $42 mark. This level also combine with 61.8% fibonacci retracement level which may increase the strength of the resistance . On fundamental side, supporting crude inventories could push oil higher again in coming days.  Based on above analysis , crude most possible moving towards $42 before giving any correction while $37.50 mark act as support. MCX -> S2(2410) S1(2468) cmp(2530) R1(2610) R2(2740) Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/ sell recommendation.

This Happens With 95% of Traders

With public sector banks reeling under tremendous pressure to tackle their dismal bad loan situation, consolidation is the way forward, and this could bring down the number of lenders to about 6 from the present 27, participants in the recently-held Gyan Sangam, a retreat for chiefs of public sector banks and financial institutions have been reported to say according to an article published in the Hindustan Times. However, consolidations among banks will take some time so as to safeguard against disruptions in the functioning of the state-run lenders. As banks are already short-staffed, downsizing would not be required. An expert committee, which will be soon set up to look into the issue, will closely work with the Banks Board Bureau (BBB) to identify the right matches for consolidation. The BBB, which will independently oversee consolidation and chalk out business plans for Public Sector Banks (PSBs), is set to be put in place by April 1, 2016. Ex- CAG head Vinod Rai would be t

Finally, after selling for the past few months, the FIIs have bought big in March and the markets have rebounded. Let us see if this rally has the legs to go higher. 1. The Budget was nothing great, the key take away from the budget was sticking to the fiscal deficit target. Many had expected that to infuse growth, the Government would do more spending and as a result of which relax the fiscal deficit target. 2. The FIIs have given a thumbs up to the budget and pumped in almost 6000 crores into the markets in the 4 trading sessions of March. The results were evident and the markets have risen correspondingly almost 10 pc from the intra day bottom of the Budget day. 3. The burning question is what next for the markets. The markets have risen up to the critical resistance levels of 7500-7600. From these levels, the markets can retrace this rise by say 300-400 points to 7100-7200 before continuing the up move. 4. The markets once they clear 7500-7600 will face the next set of resistances

Rec Price  = Re-commanded Price , Rec Date - Re-commanded Date, CMP = Current Market Price , SL = Stop Los Disclaimer -PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE VIEWS AND CALLS ARE AS PER THE ANALYSIS OF CHARTS AND MAY REVERSE ANYTIME. THIS POST IS PURELY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS A BUYING OR SELLING RECOMMENDATION. I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND I REQUEST ALL STUDENTS AND READERS OF THIS POST THAT NOT TO TRADE THIS STRATEGY. THIS POST I HAVE POSTED ON THIS PAGE IS FOR MY FUTURE REFERENCE.

Nifty weekly performance  (February 29, 2016 – March 04, 2016) : Indian indices logged in their biggest weekly gains since May 2009. This was seen as the government unveiled a fiscally prudent federal budget. Gains were also seen as foreign investors increased their holdings amid an improving global market environment. The Sensex climbed 6.4% since its last week's closing. The NSE Nifty added 6.5% during the week.  The index dipped below the 6,900 support levels momentarily on Monday but has snapped back quickly from there onwards. It has rallied one-way from there till 7,500 levels. The index now faces resistance around 7,600 levels. The RSI on 75 minute chart is also pointing towards exhaustion in momentum. Thus, we may expect some profit booking or consolidation in the coming week.  Nifty Prediction for Week  (March 08, 2016 – March 11, 2016): Support for the index lies in the zone of 7230 to 7280 from where the index has broken out of the short term top. If the in

Why the humble Dosa — the South Indian dish loved by all — continues to cost high when RBI is claiming a victory over inflation? Governor Raghuram Rajan blames lack of technology upgrades from its traditional ‘Tawa’ preparation and high wages of the person making it! ‘The technology for making Dosas hasn’t actually changed. Till today that person puts it (Dosa batter) on Tawa, spreads it around and then takes it out, right? There has been no technological improvement there. “However, the wages that you are paying to that gentleman, especially in a high-wage sort of state like Kerala, are going up all the time,” Rajan said. The RBI Governor was replying to a question from a Dosa- loving engineering student at a Federal Bank event in Kochi last night. “In real life, I have a query on Dosa prices — when inflation rates go up, Dosa prices go up, but when inflation rates are lower, the Dosa prices are not lowered. What is happening to our beloved Dosa, sir?” she asked. Rajan repl

There must be some way out of here" said the joker to the thief "There's too much confusion", I can't get no relief - Bob Dylan, All Along the Watchtower Arun Jaitley presented his third budget on February 29, 2016. Since then, the only point from the budget that is being discussed is the income tax to be applicable on the Employees' Provident Fund and other recognised provident funds. In fact, the government's communication on this left a lot to be desired. The finance minister Jaitley said during the course of the speech: "I believe that the tax treatment should be uniform for defined benefit and defined contribution pension plans. I believe that the tax treatment should be uniform for defined benefit and defined contribution pension plans. I propose to make withdrawal up to 40% of the corpus at the time of retirement tax exempt in the case of National Pension Scheme. In case of superannuation funds and recognized provident funds, including E

Bulls are dominating the Nifty since last few days, from support level 6800.00 – Price is steadily rising. But looking from the perspective of daily chart, Nifty 50 reveals some interesting information. It’s obvious to note that nifty is bullish since March 1st – shortly a day after Indian budget 2016. A day before the large bullish candlestick, we saw a huge rejection at support level 6800.00 (Look at the chart). Now this price action at Feb 29th begs some questions! The current price rise in nifty – is it a valid bullish movement, accommodated by strong buying pressure or just a mere liquidation after the effect of budget? Leaving this question aside, let’s focus on the chart. We see a breakout at earlier resistance level 7250.00, breakout formation itself is exhaustion gaps followed by two small-sized bullish candles. This tells us that Price action is rising slowly, with some decent momentum. We should always evaluate the candlesticks along with the gaps, if they’re formed wi

Easing liquidity in the bond market and the hopes of more rate cuts from the RBI have driven the rally The Banking and Finance sectors have responded with large post-Budget gains. The Nifty Bank is up by over 5% since Monday. From a technical standpoint, the signal is clear. Any trend following system will suggest going long and staying long, with a trailing stop loss. Easing liquidity in the bond market and the hopes of more rate cuts from the RBI have driven the rally. The bond market went into a big rally on Budget day with yields falling sharply. The reason was a positive surprise. Nobody expected the Fiscal Deficit to be held to 3.5% of GDP. The Government's borrowing programme in 2016-17 will be somewhat less than in 2015-16. There are also hopes that the RBI will cut rates in early April, at its next bi-monthly policy review. Some optimists are hoping for an earlier rate cut - after all, the RBI made an out-of-turn rate cut in 2015. I am not so sure the RBI will cut r

Sale in the market:  The ongoing market downturn has put several companies at a bargain.  Here are the top Sensex companies which are quoting at a discount. Company Market cap Price Current P/E Median P/E Fall from Median P/E ROE (%) Debt-equity Ratio Bharti Airtel 1,24,439 311.3 22.8 30.7 -25.7 7.5 1.18 ONGC 1,83,087 213.5 10.3 12.3 -16.3 10.1 0.3 ITC 2,48,261 309 25.6 31 -16 33.2 0.01 NTPC 1,02,944 124.75 9.8 11.6 -15 11.8 1.26 Power 75,151 143.35 12.9 15.1 -14.6 13.8 2.63 Wipro 1,31,234 531 14.7 17 -13.6 25.2 0.21 TCS 4,43,536 2268.8 20.6 23.3 -11.8 40.2 0.01 Reliance 3,11,864 962.65 11.7 13.3 -11.7 11.4 0.74 Dr. Reddy Labs 49,221 2,885 20.1 22.3 -9.7 26.6 0.44 Coal 1,98,175 314