Weekly Outlook Nifty for week (June 13, 2016 – June 17, 2016)
Nifty weekly performance (June 06, 2016 – June 10, 2016) :
Indian markets registered losses during the week. For the entire week, the BSE Sensexdown 0.8%, while the NSE Nifty was down 0.6%.
The index surged close to the 8,300 mark but eventually slipped lower in the end. It touched the upper edge of the rising channel, which would restrict any bullish advances immediately. On the lower side, 8,150 looks like an immediate support. A break below this support could push the index down to the lower edge of the channel at 8,000.
Nifty Prediction for Week (June 13, 2016 – June 17, 2016):
Support for the index lies in the zone of 8000 from where the index has broken out from the triple top formation. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index can drift to the levels of 7800 where 200 Daily SMA is lying.
Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 8280 to 8340 where the index has created the gap on gap down opening in the month of Aug – 2015. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 8600 to 8650 levels.
Broad range for the week is seen from 8000 on downside to 8400 on upside.
Bank Nifty Prediction for Week (June 13, 2016 – June 17, 2016):
Minor support for the index lies in the zone of 17500. Support for the index lies in the zone of 17000 from where the index has broken out of the double top formation. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index can drift to the levels of 16500 where 200 Daily SMA is lying.
Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 18100 to 18200 where the index has created gap on gap down opening in the month of Aug – 2015. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 19000.
Range for the week is seen from 17300 to 17400 on downside to 18200 to 18300 on upside.
COMMODITIES :
Gold traded on a positive note during the week. It opened its session in the green and rose to its highest in nearly in two weeks on Monday. This was seen as the weak US jobs data released last week cut the chances of a US interest rate hike. Gains were also seen midweek as a firm demand of precious metals overseas extended gold's uptrend. During the end of the week, the yellow-metal witnessed slight losses on the back of a firm dollar overseas. However, it held near a three-week high on Friday and ended its session in the green. The MCX Gold August contract opened the session at 29,370/10 grams. It traded at a high of 30,141/10 grams before finally closing the session at 30,084/10 grams.
Weekly News and Highlights:
India:
1) During the week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the benchmark repo rate untouched in its third bi-monthly monetary policy review. It kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and cash reserve ratio (CRR) at 4%. This was largely on the back of strong economic tailwinds.
The RBI further said that its policy stance continues to remain accommodative. However, the central bank warned that inflation risks were on the upside even as it retained the inflation targets set out in the April policy.
Much focus was also on whether Raghuram Rajan would keep his job as the RBI governor come September. When asked about this, Mr Rajan said that it would be cruel for him to spoil the fun the press is having. He added that the government and the RBI would collectively take the decision.
The government had earlier stated that it will take a call on extending Raghuram Rajan's tenure as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor in August, a month before his three-year term ends. It was also noted that Subramanian Swamy's letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi complaining about the governor and arguing against an extension won't have any impact on the decision.
Global :
2) All eyes are now on next week's two-day meeting where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will give further cues on interest rate decision.
The Fed is going to meet a week before the UK EU referendum. And market participants are gauging that the Fed may even delay a decision on rates for fear of unsettling global markets as a possible Brexit looms.
3) During the week crude oil witnessed buying interest. The commodity hit its 2016 highs and US crude settled above US$50 a barrel. This was seen as reports showed a higher-than-expected crude draw in the US during the week. Also, worries about global supply shortfalls on the back of attacks on Nigeria's oil industry aided the rally. These gains were preceded by losses witnessed during last week after the much-awaited OPEC meet went off with no decision on the freeze of crude supplies.
4) In another news development, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate unchanged at its policy meet this week. It kept the cash rate at 2.25% and raised the growth forecast for the near term. It also strengthened its growth forecast for the trade-weighted exchange rate.
Indian markets registered losses during the week. For the entire week, the BSE Sensexdown 0.8%, while the NSE Nifty was down 0.6%.
The index surged close to the 8,300 mark but eventually slipped lower in the end. It touched the upper edge of the rising channel, which would restrict any bullish advances immediately. On the lower side, 8,150 looks like an immediate support. A break below this support could push the index down to the lower edge of the channel at 8,000.
Nifty Prediction for Week (June 13, 2016 – June 17, 2016):
Support for the index lies in the zone of 8000 from where the index has broken out from the triple top formation. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index can drift to the levels of 7800 where 200 Daily SMA is lying.
Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 8280 to 8340 where the index has created the gap on gap down opening in the month of Aug – 2015. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 8600 to 8650 levels.
Broad range for the week is seen from 8000 on downside to 8400 on upside.
Bank Nifty Prediction for Week (June 13, 2016 – June 17, 2016):
Minor support for the index lies in the zone of 17500. Support for the index lies in the zone of 17000 from where the index has broken out of the double top formation. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index can drift to the levels of 16500 where 200 Daily SMA is lying.
Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 18100 to 18200 where the index has created gap on gap down opening in the month of Aug – 2015. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 19000.
Range for the week is seen from 17300 to 17400 on downside to 18200 to 18300 on upside.
COMMODITIES :
Gold traded on a positive note during the week. It opened its session in the green and rose to its highest in nearly in two weeks on Monday. This was seen as the weak US jobs data released last week cut the chances of a US interest rate hike. Gains were also seen midweek as a firm demand of precious metals overseas extended gold's uptrend. During the end of the week, the yellow-metal witnessed slight losses on the back of a firm dollar overseas. However, it held near a three-week high on Friday and ended its session in the green. The MCX Gold August contract opened the session at 29,370/10 grams. It traded at a high of 30,141/10 grams before finally closing the session at 30,084/10 grams.
Weekly News and Highlights:
India:
1) During the week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the benchmark repo rate untouched in its third bi-monthly monetary policy review. It kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and cash reserve ratio (CRR) at 4%. This was largely on the back of strong economic tailwinds.
The RBI further said that its policy stance continues to remain accommodative. However, the central bank warned that inflation risks were on the upside even as it retained the inflation targets set out in the April policy.
Much focus was also on whether Raghuram Rajan would keep his job as the RBI governor come September. When asked about this, Mr Rajan said that it would be cruel for him to spoil the fun the press is having. He added that the government and the RBI would collectively take the decision.
The government had earlier stated that it will take a call on extending Raghuram Rajan's tenure as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor in August, a month before his three-year term ends. It was also noted that Subramanian Swamy's letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi complaining about the governor and arguing against an extension won't have any impact on the decision.
Global :
2) All eyes are now on next week's two-day meeting where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will give further cues on interest rate decision.
The Fed is going to meet a week before the UK EU referendum. And market participants are gauging that the Fed may even delay a decision on rates for fear of unsettling global markets as a possible Brexit looms.
3) During the week crude oil witnessed buying interest. The commodity hit its 2016 highs and US crude settled above US$50 a barrel. This was seen as reports showed a higher-than-expected crude draw in the US during the week. Also, worries about global supply shortfalls on the back of attacks on Nigeria's oil industry aided the rally. These gains were preceded by losses witnessed during last week after the much-awaited OPEC meet went off with no decision on the freeze of crude supplies.
4) In another news development, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate unchanged at its policy meet this week. It kept the cash rate at 2.25% and raised the growth forecast for the near term. It also strengthened its growth forecast for the trade-weighted exchange rate.
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