Weekly Outlook (April 04, 2016 – April 08, 2016)

Nifty weekly performance  (March 28, 2016 – April 1, 2016):

Indian indices ended the week on a negative note. For the entire week, the BSE Sensex was down by 0.3% and the NSE Nifty was down by 0.1%. On Friday, the Indian equity markets finished their day on a weak note, despite markets correcting from their lows in the second half. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex closed lower by about 72 points, while the NSE Nifty finished lower by 25 points.

The index started the weak on a jittery note but held above 7,600 and ended the week on a flattish note. And until it moves decisively out of this range, the choppy action will continue. 

Traders should take cues from the RBI policy meeting scheduled early next week. 




Nifty Prediction for Week  (March 21, 2016 – March 23, 2016):

Support for the index lies in the zone of 7500 to 7600 from where the index has broken down after making the double bottom pattern and 100 Daily SMA is lying. If the index manages to close below this levels then the index can drift to the levels of 7400 where the index has opened with the gap up on 03/03/2016 and short term moving averages are lying.

Minor resistance for the index lies in the zone of 7720 where the index has opened gap down on 07/01/2016. Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 7900 where 200 & 500 Daily SMA is lying. If the index manages to close above this levels then the index can move to the levels of 8100 where trend-line joining earlier highs is lying.

Broad range for the week is seen from 7500 on downside to 7900 on upside.

COMMODITIES

GOLD  Gold traded on a mixed note during the week. On Monday, it stood at its weakest in a month. Prices dropped as the metal was pressured by a firmer dollar. Participants trimmed their positions after tracking the comments from the US Federal Reserve that suggested at least two interest rate hikes will come this year. A weakening global trend also weighed on prices. Further, the yellow metal traded on a mixed note midweek. However, prices rose on Thursday and gold was set to record its best quarter in nearly 30 years. The uptrend was seen on the back of a softer dollar. Finally, on Friday, it traded on a positive note and ended its session in the red. The MCX Gold April contract opened the session at 28,525.00/10 grams. It traded at a high of 28,830.00/10 grams before finally closing the session at 28,040.00/10 grams.


Weekly News and Highlights:

1) Dovish comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen sparked volatility in the markets during the week. Ms Yellen said that, considering global economic and financial developments since December, the pace of rate increases is now expected to be somewhat slower. She mentioned that foreign economic growth now seems likely to be weaker this year than previously expected, and earnings expectations have declined. 

Data released on Monday pointed that consumer spending in the US edged higher in February. This came as income growth slowed and consumer prices fell slightly. 

2) China's manufacturing activity expanded in March for the first time in nine months. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.2 in March, up from February's 49. Further, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 53.8 in March, up from 52.7 in February. Also, the service sector sub-index stood at 53.1 in March, up 0.9 from February. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 reflects contraction. 

This all gives positive momentum to the reforms being implemented by the Chinese government to halt the slowdown there. 

3) The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) quarterly tankan survey of business confidence fell short of expectations in the march quarter. The data showed that large manufacturers' business sentiment deteriorated to its lowest level in nearly three years. Moreover, it was noted that the sentiments are expected to worsen in the coming quarter. The data heightened pressure on both Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the BOJ to do more to shore up Japan's ailing economy.

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