Weekly Outlook (April 18, 2016 – April 22, 2016)
Nifty weekly performance (April 11, 2016 – April 13, 2016):
Indian markets flourished in the green during the week. For the entire week, the BSE Sensex was up by 3.8% and the NSE Nifty was up by 3.9%.
The bulls snapped back into the ring and have pushed the bears in a corner after almost a 300-point rally in the Nifty in just 3 days.
The index finally closed above the 7,800 levels with good volumes and are looking very strong at this point of time.
The above surge came on the back of a slew of good news - forecast of an above-normal monsoon, dipping consumer price inflation and a rising Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
Nifty Prediction for Week (April 18, 2016 – April 22, 2016):
Support for the index lies in the zone of 7500 to 7550 from where the index has broken down after making the double bottom pattern and 100 Daily SMA is lying. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index can drift to the levels of 7400 where the index has opened with the gap up on 03/03/2016 and short term moving averages are lying.
The index has closed around the resistance zone of 7900 to 7950 where 200 & 500 Daily SMA is lying. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 8100 where trend-line joining earlier highs is lying.
Broad range for the week is seen from 7600 on downside to 8000 on upside.
Weekly News and Highlights:
1) The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), noted that global growth has continued, but at a sluggish pace. This has left the world economy more exposed to risks, it added.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth at 3.2% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017. This was a downward revision of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, against the January 2016 update.
The IMF also cut its UK growth forecast. It now expects 1.9% growth in the UK this year, compared with its January estimate of 2.2%. This is because the IMF estimates that an exit from the EU would cause severe regional and global damage. The IMF stated that a so-called 'Brexit' would disrupt established trading relationships and cause major challenges for the UK and the rest of Europe.
2) China reported a year-on-year (YoY) surge in its exports of 11.5% in March. This came in as a surprise as the surge was preceded by a 25% slump in February. It was the first gain in nine months. The data fueled hopes that the slowdown in China may be bottoming out.
While this data comes as a welcome breather for the Chinese economy, we believe China needs to do a lot better to come out of the ongoing slowdown phase
3) All eyes are now on the upcoming meeting between OPEC, Russia, and other non-OPEC members in Doha. They're meeting to complete an accord on freezing oil production. OPEC's recent estimates of a slowdown in demand could complicate producers' efforts to bolster prices by freezing output.
India:
4) During the week, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted above normal rains in the upcoming monsoon season. It stated that this could help revive the rural demand that has been subdued for so long.
Further, the agency said that the monsoon rainfall will be 106% of the long period average and there is a 94% probability that monsoon will be normal to excess. The monsoon is considered normal when the rainfall is 96-104% of the Long Period Average (LPA) and is considered above normal when it is 105-110% of the LPA.
The news comes as a relief considering that the country has faced a deficit rainfall in the preceding two years. Eleven states declared a drought in the country after last year's failed rains, which also led to depleting water levels in reservoirs.
Indian markets flourished in the green during the week. For the entire week, the BSE Sensex was up by 3.8% and the NSE Nifty was up by 3.9%.
The bulls snapped back into the ring and have pushed the bears in a corner after almost a 300-point rally in the Nifty in just 3 days.
The index finally closed above the 7,800 levels with good volumes and are looking very strong at this point of time.
The above surge came on the back of a slew of good news - forecast of an above-normal monsoon, dipping consumer price inflation and a rising Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
Nifty Prediction for Week (April 18, 2016 – April 22, 2016):
Support for the index lies in the zone of 7500 to 7550 from where the index has broken down after making the double bottom pattern and 100 Daily SMA is lying. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index can drift to the levels of 7400 where the index has opened with the gap up on 03/03/2016 and short term moving averages are lying.
The index has closed around the resistance zone of 7900 to 7950 where 200 & 500 Daily SMA is lying. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 8100 where trend-line joining earlier highs is lying.
Broad range for the week is seen from 7600 on downside to 8000 on upside.
Weekly News and Highlights:
1) The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), noted that global growth has continued, but at a sluggish pace. This has left the world economy more exposed to risks, it added.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth at 3.2% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017. This was a downward revision of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, against the January 2016 update.
The IMF also cut its UK growth forecast. It now expects 1.9% growth in the UK this year, compared with its January estimate of 2.2%. This is because the IMF estimates that an exit from the EU would cause severe regional and global damage. The IMF stated that a so-called 'Brexit' would disrupt established trading relationships and cause major challenges for the UK and the rest of Europe.
2) China reported a year-on-year (YoY) surge in its exports of 11.5% in March. This came in as a surprise as the surge was preceded by a 25% slump in February. It was the first gain in nine months. The data fueled hopes that the slowdown in China may be bottoming out.
While this data comes as a welcome breather for the Chinese economy, we believe China needs to do a lot better to come out of the ongoing slowdown phase
3) All eyes are now on the upcoming meeting between OPEC, Russia, and other non-OPEC members in Doha. They're meeting to complete an accord on freezing oil production. OPEC's recent estimates of a slowdown in demand could complicate producers' efforts to bolster prices by freezing output.
India:
4) During the week, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted above normal rains in the upcoming monsoon season. It stated that this could help revive the rural demand that has been subdued for so long.
Further, the agency said that the monsoon rainfall will be 106% of the long period average and there is a 94% probability that monsoon will be normal to excess. The monsoon is considered normal when the rainfall is 96-104% of the Long Period Average (LPA) and is considered above normal when it is 105-110% of the LPA.
The news comes as a relief considering that the country has faced a deficit rainfall in the preceding two years. Eleven states declared a drought in the country after last year's failed rains, which also led to depleting water levels in reservoirs.
- On Friday SGX Nifty is closed at 7937 levels , expecting Nifty to open with Gap Up on Monday.
- Infosys (INFY) produced fiscal fourth earnings that met expectations and in NYSE the stock rose more than 8% Friday. Excepting INFY to open between 1260 - 1270 levels.
Comments